I really like the line value we are getting here on the Bobcats, a well coached team. First of all they come off two loses ATS where they were not even close to covering. The odds makers were off by 27 and 38.5 points where Ohio missed covering the spread. To avoid this they have inflated this number against Bowling Green, because they are coming off 3 straight covers and in their last 2 have covered the spread by 35 and 36 points.
Ohio was not as bad as they looked in their last road game against Buffalo losing 41-17 as a road favorite. They were -4 in the turnover margin game, which rarely happens as they are still +5 on the season. Ohio can throw the football, and I feel it's a good match up against Bowling Green who is 113th vs. the pass. Vick should have a very nice game here against Bowling Green's pass defense. Ohio is top 50 in completion % and passing yards and I feel they will be able to put up enough points to cover this large spread. Bowling Green also can throw the ball, but that matches right up against Ohio's strength on defense which is its pass defense.
Bowling Green will go up against Ohio's pass defense which has allowed 6 passing TD's all year with 9 interceptions. They have not allowed over 300 yards passing to any QB's all year and while I think Matt Johnson will throw over 300 yards he will not look great doing so. Johnson has been sacked already 24 times this year and goes up against Ohio's 19th ranked pass defense, this may be the best pass defense he has faced, and this is a team that's not all that balanced as their rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired.
Bowling Green also the more penalized team here with 9.3 per game which is a lot, but what also concerns me is the fact that they are 114th in special teams efficiency while Ohio comes in at 60th, and committing just 5.8 penalties per conference game. Bowling Green also goes up against a top 40 third down defense for just the 3rd time all year and they lost the other two. Ohio allowing 32% conversions, and it has trickled over to their red zone defense which has allowed 42% TD conversions in the red zone and 35% in conference play. A lot to like about Ohio catching 21 points here.
